Hong Kong Lawyer


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Ms. Heidi Chu, Secretary General 秘書長朱潔冰律師 準備就緒 共創雙贏 去年5月,Google Alpha Go擊敗了世界棋王柯潔, 震驚全球,被科技界譽為人工智能戰勝人腦。 當時那個里程碑似乎對法律界並無任何影響。法 律執業並非圍棋。然而,6個月後的11月,人工智 能在索償結果預測比賽中,擊敗了一眾律師。超過 100名倫敦商業律師參加了比賽,律師和人工智能 均獲得數百宗錯誤銷售還款保障保險案件的基本事 實,來預測英國金融申訴專員是否會容許案件索 償。律師們不受監控地工作了一個星期後,提交他 們對這些索償結果的預測。這些案件是金融申訴專 員已處理的真實申訴。人工智能程式CaseCruncher Alpha(由3名劍橋法律學生策劃)大勝而回,準確率 86.6%,而律師的準確率僅為62.3% 。 雖然沒有必要過份閱讀比賽結果,但人工智能程式 日益精進、複雜和便於使用,勢必對法律服務界帶 來影響。研究人工智能的影響之性質和可能程度, 提前作好準備和計劃策略,以令它發揮積極作用, 將是未來的出路。 2017年10月底,英格蘭和威爾斯律師會法律服務 部門發表了一個預測。據預測,英格蘭和威爾斯 的職位數量長遠將越來越受法律服務自動化的影 響。到了2038年,行業的職位總數可能會比原來 少20%。預測是基於有研究顯示,在2016/17年 度,英格蘭和威爾斯的律師行已用自動/資訊科技 系統取代了3%合資格律師、5%法律助理和9%非 收費員工。然而,從商業角度來看,預測顯示新科 技的運用將使律師行的生產力增長率增加一倍,從 目前的每年1.2%增至每年2.4%。因此,預計20% 的職位流失將被對法律服務的需求和行業持續增長 所抵消。 人工智能的發展也促使提供法律服務的模式出現新 形式,導致非常規法律服務提供者數目激增。有些 提供者或許試圖透過先進科技來利用監管的灰色地 帶。在選擇服務提供者前,市民必須確保充分了解 其提供的服務和保障性質。 因此,科技進步帶來的非常規法律服務,促使世 界各地的法律專業機構思考如何更好地保障公眾, 特別是政府可以和應該就此發揮甚麼作用。國際 律師協會律師事務委員會轄下的政策委員會計劃於 2018年5月審議該協會律師行為守則的擬議更新。 Getting Prepared to Ensure a Win-Win The defeat of Ke Jie, the world's top Go player, by Google's Alpha Go in May last year rocked the world, and was heralded by the tech community as the triumph of artificial intelligence (AI) over the human brain. At the time however, that milestone would seemingly have no impact on the legal industry. Legal practice is not chess. Yet, six months later in November, AI beat lawyers in a fascinating contest on claims outcome prediction. Over 100 commercial London lawyers signed up for the competition. Both the lawyers and the AI were given the basic facts of hundreds of payment protection insurance mis-selling cases and asked to predict whether the Financial Ombudsman would allow a claim. The lawyers worked on the cases in an unsupervised environment for a week and submitted their predictions of the outcome of those claims. The cases were real complaints that had been decided by the Financial Ombudsman Service. The AI programme, CaseCruncher Alpha (masterminded by three Cambridge law students) won by a huge margin, scoring an accuracy of 86.6 percent compared to the lawyers' score of 62.3 percent. While there is no need to read too much into one contest, the increasing sophistication, complexity and availability of AI programmes are bound to impact the legal services sector. The way forward is to study the nature and likely extent of the impact, be prepared and strategise in advance to make a positive difference. At the end of October 2017, the Law Society of England and Wales published a forecast of the legal services sector. The forecast projected that over the longer term, the number of jobs in England and Wales will be increasingly affected by the automation of legal services functions. By 2038, total employment in the sector may be 20 percent less than it otherwise would have been. These forecasts were based on research showing that in 2016/17, law firms in England and Wales had already replaced 3 percent of qualified solicitors, 5 percent of paralegals and 9 percent of non-fee earning staff with automated / IT based systems. From a business perspective however, the forecast predicted that the adoption of new technologies will double the growth of law firms' productivity from the current 1.2 percent per year to 2.4 percent per year within a decade. Thus, the projected 20 percent job loss is expected to be offset by the increase in the demand for legal services and continued growth. The development of AI also fuels new ways of legal services delivery, resulting in the proliferation of unconventional legal service providers. Some providers may try to take advantage of advancing technologies to exploit regulatory grey areas. Before selecting their service providers, the public must ensure that they fully understand the nature of the services and protections that these service providers offer. Consequently, the emergence of unconventional legal services delivery enabled by technological advancements has prompted legal professional bodies around FROM THE SECRETARIAT 律 師 會 秘 書處 資 訊 16 www.hk-lawyer.org •  February 2018

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